tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7453590542267413208.post4499568241254037595..comments2023-08-19T07:45:34.571-07:00Comments on Shifting Shorelines: Beach Preservation Blog: Norfolk, VA deals with sea level riseUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7453590542267413208.post-13604043505475672712010-11-30T22:24:18.780-08:002010-11-30T22:24:18.780-08:00Sea level rise is one of the pillars upon which th...Sea level rise is one of the pillars upon which the concern over global warming is built. One of the most commonly reported projections of sea level rise for the 21st century comes from a Proceedings of the December 2009 National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) article "Global Sea level linked to Global Temperatures" by Vermeer and Rahmstorf.<br /><br />Two profound problems with the Vermeer and Rahmstorf article are the fact that they used out-dated sea level data and did not incorporate a vital correction for water that is added to the oceans through depletion of groundwater aquifers.<br /><br />Their source for sea level data, Church and White, updated their data at about the same time that the PNAS article was published. A Geophysical Research Letters article this year has provided very good information on the effect of the groundwater depletion. When the updated Church and White data and the groundwater depletion are accounted for, Vermeer's and Rahmstorf's model yields sea level rise projections for the 21st century that are only half of what they reported.<br /><br />As far as I can tell, Vermeer and Rahmstorf have never acknowledged the updated Church and White data. They have not published new calculations or a retraction of their projections. Their extreme projection of 1.8 meters for the 21st century still finds its way into various documents and is widely echoed on the internet.<br /><br />The concept of their model was bogus to start with. But even their bogus model yields sea level rises half of what they reported when proper data is input.<br /><br />I have written a variety of posts concerning what I see as very serious flaws in this widely read article. Here is a URL to an index of those posts...<br /><br />http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/critique-of-global-sea-level-linked-to-global-temperature-by-vermeer-and-rahmstor/<br /><br />Parts 9 & 10 cover the effect of using the updated Church and White sea level data and the groundwater depletion correction. If you feel so inclined, please have a look. I would appreciate any criticisms.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com